Scorecard
ORACLE's honest self-report. If it isn't beating the benchmarks net of cost, this page says so plainly.
55%
hit rate
+0.18R
avg edge
0.238
Brier
vs benchmarks (excess, shadow)
+3.1%
vs SPY
-1.2%
vs BTC
+2.4%
vs doing nothing
Calibration — is "60%" actually 60%?
50–55%n=19
55–60%n=14
60–70%n=8
70%+n=3
insufficient data (n< min)
bar = realized hit rate · tick = stated probability
Saves ledger — prevented mistakes
6 trades blocked/warned by risk + expectancy gates+3.80R
For a manual operator, not blowing up is most of the edge — so we measure it.